26th April 2001 – 25th April 2004
Natural Environment Research Council
The dynamics of mature tropical forests have changed in the late 20th Century – long-term forest plots show increased biomass and rates of tree mortality and recruitment – but the underlying drivers of these changes are not understood. We propose a world-wide effort to extend, qualitatively and quantitatively, the network of tropical forest plots, integrate it with soil and climate data, and then creatively use this data to identify the mechanism(s) causing changing forest dynamics. We will document potential hypotheses and then undertake new analyses to test a priori predictions of forest behaviour consequent on different mechanisms. A set of testable predictions together provide a ‘signature’ of responses to tests unique to each hypothesis. Identifying the mechanism(s) involved will help us to understand the impacts of changing dynamics on biodiversity and climate change.