• Andy Turner's MoSeS Meeting 2006-05-03 Page

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  • MoSeS Meeting Leeds Primary Care Trust Initial Meeting

    • People

      • Mike Robinson (public health director)
      • Mike Davidge (cancelled) (person responsible for modelling in the Making Leeds Better Initiative)
      • Kamran Saddiqi
      • Justin Keen
      • Andy Turner

    • Background

      • Justin's email gist:
        • Making Leeds Better Initiative is concerned with re-configuration of health services across Leeds in the next 5 years or so.
        • This is just a 'get to know you' meeting, where we can find out what kinds of primary and community care data they hold, how complete and accurate it is, etc. We would want to consider what kinds of outputs we could produce that would interest the local NHS - though this should not be a problem, as I have indicated in MoSeS meetings.
        • There is also a possible tie-in with another project in my group, which is looking at the effects of new services for older people with mental health problems.
        • Brian Derry from the Leeds Teaching hospitals is on our steering group, and accessing hospital data would be a separate conversation.

    • Ice Breaker

      • The meeting had a staggerred start... Justin kicked off introducing a couple of thoughts:
        • Focus on the demand for health care and the relationship between primary care and rehabilitating and long term care.
        • What policy relevant questions can be asked, what data is available...?

    • Details

      • Andy outline the MoSeS context and demographic modelling
        • Individual and household level simulation for the UK from 2001 to 2031
        • Developed in two stages
          • An intialisation for 2001
          • A dynamic simulation
        • Currently based on UK Population Census Data
        • Aim to incorporate other data through various means
        • An initial dataset for 2001 has been produced
      • Is Derek Wanless model available?
        • We should look to build on this...
        • This model has no split between primary and secondary care
        • It is an Operations Research model of health care provision
      • Demand for health services needs to be built into the MoSeS model
      • What are the current patterns of use of health care services?
      • Interest in integrating longitudinal health data (probabilities for dynamic simulation)
      • Partnerships for older people projects (POPPs)
      • Mental health services
      • Bottom up approach to Service Planning used by LPCT:
        • Experts in primary care asked how much care is needed for each patient and their treatment (unitl recovery/stability and beyond) possibly over their lifetime (the next n years...)
        • 28 care pathways identified at each step along the pathway some reckoning about how much resource needed is given by expert assessor
        • This used operationally to work out how many beds, staff, outpatients theatres, etc... will be needed...
        • This is great data! Clearly over time this builds up to provide information on the changing demands for health care/services
      • PCT will need to be doing community modelling as hospital modelling has taken a long time.
      • Transport is a big issue for Making Leeds Better
        • Great! MoSeS is looking for a transport application :) Hopefully Haibo is interested in this...
        • Leeds PCT has no dialogue with the tranpsort planners
        • Gill Copeland
        • Public consultation at the end of the year will need to say something about transport
        • Buses are de-regulated
        • What happens if all LGI functions are moved to Seacroft
        • Next election will see how much financial resources health care will have
      • Martin Clarke involved...
      • Health equity access to health care differences for different parts of leeds...
      • Starting work on equity baselines: Will set up annual equity audit...
      • The trend is to get rid of district nurses and have the elderly cared for by neighbours friends and family...
      • Ad hoc data collection for equity profiling...
      • Intermediate care moved elderly care out into the community in Leeds in the past...
      • Further thoughts:
        • The more specific the better (!?)
        • Diabetes is a big disease...
        • Can we model the shift of care from hospitals into the community...
        • Smoking and drug abuse...
        • Jane Romsey...
        • Martin has a model whereby he could give estimates about average expendature change as a result in changes in tax laws...
        • How are we going to model inequities?
        • Denis Holmes(sp?) part of the Making Leeds Better social services division modelling team
        • Mike will broker a meeting with Denise
        • Exiter system (who is registered with which GP)
          • Sounds like excellent data...
        • Question of prevalence by practices
        • Expect a minor crisis in the Autumn as it is realised that Making Leeds Better is too expensive...
        • Prevention Screening Management
        • COP rehab is both primary and secondary
        • How do the people get to the service, how is the service got to the people?
          • This transport issue is key
          • Use of existing building (LIFT - creating new buildings, used to be a like for like disability access initiative, now moving GPs and services around...)
          • Ian Hevens(sp?) appointed to look at this...
        • Mixed communities pilots
        • North Leeds PCT sees expensive people living and moving to live in the region
          • Does our MoSeS model show this?
          • Some idea of the sensitivites involved is good. Is an overspend of 1% reasonable, how bad could it have been...
        • WHO disaster management
      • Actions
        • MoSeS needs to prepare 5 slides with some examples of what the model can offer
        • Mike will talk to Mike this afternoon
        • Andy will post notes online and email group
        • Next meeing with Mike Davidge 2006-06-06 11:00-12:00 TBC...
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