MedAction Work Package 3.3: Forecasting land use change and land degradation

Introduction

MedAction 4 was one of a cluster of four European Commission Funded projects forming a programme of integrated, multidisciplinary research, involving the principal stakeholders and concentrating on finding solutions to the strategic problem of desertification in the Mediterranean climate region. Project start date: 2001-01-01. Project end date: 2004-03-31. The full title of Work Package 3.3 (WP3.3 )was Forecasting land use change and land degradation: an internet tool for EU planners, decision-makers and citizens interested in the effects of global climatic change. WP3.3 was part of Module 3: Application of decision support systems to land management scenarios for policy formulation in the Target Areas. The Target Areas were the Alentejo (Portugal), Guadalentin (Spain), Agri (Italy) and Lesvos (Greece). The project was an opportunity to make an open version of a Synoptic Prediction System (SPS) prototyped in the Medalus III Topic 9.1 project.

Andy Turner was the Principal Investigator. James Macgill and Richard Kingston assisted in the early stages. Jianhui Jin assisted to complete the project.

Contents

• Description of Work
• Development of a Synoptic Prediction System
• References

Description of Work

Work Package 3.3 concerned the development of an interactive Web interface to a Synoptic Prediction System (SPS) which integrates predictions of the climate, physical and socio-economic environment to create scenario-based forecasts of agricultural land-use and land degradation at the Mediterranean regional scale. The interface was developed as a scenario testing tool that decision-makers, politicians and the public could use to learn about desertification issues by running "what if...?" type simulations. In addition to being an educational tool it aimed to actively encourage the public and experts to participate in the development and application of a scenario based modelling framework.

Development of the Synoptic Prediction System (SPS)

James Macgill populated a Web Map Server (WMS) with some of the data inputs. Richard Kingston developed a prototype interface. Jianhui Jin developed open source Java software for Neural Network and Fuzzy Inference and integrated a new back end with a new version of the interface. The source code was made available via the following URL: http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/a.turner/src/andyt/java/projects/MedAction/

Unfortunately shortly after the SPS system was developed the CCG Webserver machine suffered a catastrophic failure and was not replaced.

References

• Project References
  • MedAction 4 on the Cordis Website
  • MedAction Main Project Website
    • Description of Work
    • Module 3: Application of decision support systems to land management scenarios for policy formulation in the Target Areas
      • Work Package 3.1 and Work Package 3.2: Application of Decision Support System to Alentejo, Agri, Guadalentin and Lesvos Target Areas
        • http://www.ncl.ac.uk/medaction/
        • http://www.riks.nl/projects/medaction
      • Work Package 3.3 Forecasting land use change and land degradation: an internet tool for EU planners, decision-makers and citizens interested in the effects of global climatic change
        • http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/a.turner/src/andyt/java/projects/MedAction/
        • Report on the Development of: An Internet based Synoptic Prediction System Geared for Estimating Land Use Change and Land Degradation Risk In the Mediterranean Climate Region of the European Union
        • MedAction: An Internet Tool For Forecasting Land Use Change And Land Degradation In The Mediterranean Region
        • The MedAction Internet Tool for Forecasting Land-use Change and Land Degradation
        • Andy Turner's MEDALUS III Topic 9.1: GIS-based Socio-Economic Modelling at Regional Scale Web Page
• Other References
  • Organisations
    • Wikipedia : International Year of Deserts and Desertification (2006)
    • European Commission - Research Directorate-General
    • Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
    • Global Environment Facility (GEF)
    • International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)
    • International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)
    • International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)
    • United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)
    • United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
    • United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
  • Projects
    • Active exchange of experience on indicators and development of perspectives in the context of UNCCD (AIDCCD)
    • Understanding anthropogenic causes of desertification and land degradation in the Mediterranean basin (ARCHAEOMEDES II)
    • A Research Network for Studies of Global Desertification (ARIDnet)
    • Changes in Arid Mediterranean Ecosystems on the Long term and Earth Observation (CAMELEO)
    • Combating Desertification in Mediterranean Europe: Linking Science with Stakeholders (DESERTLINKS)
    • German Competence Network for Research to Combat Desertification (DESERTNET)
    • Developing a user-tailored, standardised, commonly accepted and operational information system based on EO technology to support national and regional authorities of Annex IV countries in reporting commonly to the UNCCD and assessing and monitoring desertification and its trends over time (DESERTWATCH)
    • Geomatics in the Assessment and Sustainable Management of Mediterranean Rangelands (GEORANGE)
    • Harmonised Modelling Tools for Integrated Basin Management (Harmoni-CA)
    • Land Degradation Assessment for Drylands (LADA)
    • Land Degradation Assessment in Mediterranean Europe (LADAMER)
    • Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC)
    • Integration of multi-scale dynamic spatial models of socio-economic and physical processes for river basin management (MEDACTION)
    • Concerted Action to support the Northern Mediterranean Action Programme to Combat Desertification (MEDRAP)
    • Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA)
    • System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling Linking European Science and Society (SEAMLESS)
    • Assessment of remote sensing techniques for monitoring the extent and progression of desertification in the Mediterranean area (ASMODE)
    • Integrated approches to desertification mapping and monitoring in the Mediterranean basin (DEMON)
    • Desertification Information System for the Mediterranean (DISMED)
    • Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS)
    • A spatial modelling tool for integrated environmental decision-making (MODULUS)
    • Remote Sensing of Mediterranean Desertification and Environmental Changes (RESMEDES)